Saturday, October 4, 2008

First high country snow bad omen for crops

The corn and other grain harvest is behind, as the hurricanes, cool spring and early summer weather, and then later-than-usual summer rains, made the crops develop later.

This, in turn, has resulted in a late harvest, as the crops were just plain not ready at the normal time. This is fine, as long as fall is unusually warm and dry, which it largely has been to date.

However, major snow is forecast for tonight in the high Rocky Mountains, about 9,000 feet. It is then supposed to rain at the lower elevations, such as in Denver. This, in and of itself, is not damaging to the late harvest, but portends a more normal fall and oncoming winter. If the crops aren't out shortly, they aren't coming out.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has already cut its forecast for the grain crop harvest. The nation's financial crunch at first had a flight of capital into commodity markets, insulating them from the first stock market crash. When full-fledged panic set in, the money fled everything, including the commodities, so grain futures are down. The expected late harvest and lower USDA forecast played into that, but it was largely the mortgage crisis that ultimately drove commodities in the tank.

As the stock market showed Friday, the bail-out isn't going to spark an immediate turnaround. The same is probably true for commodity prices like corn and soybeans, which tend to go lower when the actual crop hits the grain bin, rail cars and elevators. Bad weather keeping the crop from even being harvested, on top of it all, is a bad omen.

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