As the cows and calves come down off the mountain from summer grazing on Forest Service, Bureau of Land Management or state lands, two things happen: the calves are weaned and sold, and decisions are made about whether to keep the cows for another year.
Cows that didn't have a calf, had a substandard calf, got injured over the summer or are past 8 years old, will be shipped this fall. The best of the heifers will be sold for breeding or kept in the herd to replace the cows that are culled, and the bulls steered to ultimately become choice beef.
The cattle must return to the rancher's private property for the winter, so he must sell at least the calves as his privately-owned land probably won't support them all. In a year like this one, when feed is expensive to buy or your own feed is short because of drought, one strategy is to stretch the feed by selling more cattle than usual. Selling off more cattle might also allow a rancher who raised feed to sell some of it at today's good prices and generate even more cash.
This is likely to happen in many cases, because cattle prices are pretty good, and its smart to generate cash and pay down debt. Bankers are pressed by the mortgage lending crisis, so aren't in a generous mood. If this leads to more cow culling and fewer heifers being held back to breed, it'll mean fewer calves are born next year and beef supplies will be tighter.
Decisions, decisions. These are the ones cattlemen are facing right now.
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