Most cattle industry analysts agree that the long term outlook for cattle prices is good, due to tight supplies of cattle at all levels. Drought in the southwest has cut cow herd numbers and lowered the calf crop. Midwestern farmers have found it much more lucrative to raise corn for ethanol than keep cattle. Bad snows a year ago in parts of Colorado, Kansas and Nebraska cut cow herd numbers too.
The question is the near term, specifically this summer. Most analysts expect prices to tank around mid-July, as they usually do and rebound in the fall, which would be a normal, seasonal pattern.
A few analysts are seeing uncharacteristic strength for summer cattle prices, due to the opening of South Korea to U.S. beef and the need to keep slaughter rates up to serve it. A few others think cattle numbers are a lot lower than many officials have acknowledged so far, and that will reflect itself in a stronger summer market, due to tight supplies of both slaughter-ready cattle and replacements to go into the feedlot. Both events would lead to higher prices.
That's what's fun about forecasting cattle prices--everyone has a different opinion, providing fodder for the morning coffee klatch, going on in hundreds of cafes in rural towns across America.
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