A self-fulfilling prophecy

It is suddenly is all over the airways, and in a front page article in the Wall Street Journal, that due to high gasoline prices and other inflation, consumers are short of cash and buying less expensive pork and chicken instead of higher-priced beef.

Whether this is really happening or not, consumers will hear these reports and read the stories, and decide "you know what, the media says I'm financially pressed and I better start buying pork and chicken. I can't afford beef."

Beef supplies are tight right now, due to cows lost in last year's severe Great Plains blizzards and drought in the Southeast. Cow numbers are down, and therefore the number of calves born is down. Not as much beef is being produced. It's just basic supply and demand economics that beef prices go up. This is not the blessing for cattlemen that it would seem, because at the same time, chicken and pork supplies are bulging and their price dropping.

All meats are pressed because of the high prices of grain, and particularly corn. Ethanol producers are buying up corn in competition with cattlemen and driving the price to record levels. It's great if you raise corn, tough if you raise livestock.

It takes one year for one cow to raise one calf. This biological fact tends to stabilize cattle numbers and level out the booms and busts caused by high or low numbers. Chickens and pigs reproduce several times a year, so the supply of both meats goes up and down quickly. Let prices get into profitable territory, and a glut of chicken and pork, such as we're seeing right now, materializes overnight.

The three meats are always in competition with each other for the consumer's dollar, but it's tougher for beef when supplies are down, such as in the current situation.

The main salvation for beef is the phenomenon identified by noted consumer food expert Faith Popcorn (yes, that's really her name), she calls Chicken Fatigue. Pork (the other white meat) and chicken largely take their flavor from the sauce they're cooked in or the spices cooked with them. They are bland and boring by themselves. After a few meals of chicken and pork, consumers long for the stronger flavor, texture and "tooth" of beef, and gravitate back to it.

That's what we in the cattle industry are counting on, despite what the media is currently promoting.