If you live and die with hour-by-hour watching of the cattle market, or any other commodity for that matter, you'll probably die.
The twists and turns of the market even day-by-day can drive you crazy. For one thing, the market really only matters if you need to trade--whether it be buy or sell. It's fun to value what you already own with today's prices, but until you're ready to buy or sell, it really doesn't mean very much. You become less a visionary and tracker of the long term trends, and more a day trader, when you don't take a more seasonal view.
You don't buy and sell cattle every day, unless you're a professional trader who doesn't actually raise livestock. That's why you need to know the trend for the year, rather what the market did yesterday. That's what separates the professional cattleman from the pure speculator.
You can trade cattle futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and never actually own a single head. But that's really no different from trading any other stock or commodity. You're a trader and not a cattleman. You're not concerned with genetic improvement, improved efficiency or the psychic rewards of ranching.
You're just chasing the buck.
Monday, March 3, 2008
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