Growing season weather looking shaky

Of all the risks of farming, probably the least predictable, and potentially the most devastating, is the weather.

Drought is probably the worst condition, followed closely by excessive snow or flooding rains and then tornados, hurricanes or other pestulence. Even the best farmer, with the best equipment, seed, fertilizer and scientific methods, is still a pawn of the weather gods.

Now comes the latest from the National Weather Service: "U.S. farmers in the Midwest and Plains risk drought this summer, while those in much of the eastern half of the U.S. could face flooding. There is said to be an enhanced risk of drought going into the spring and even summer in the Corn Belt, largely because of a fading La Nina. But the first problem is getting rid of the unprecedented wetness for this time of year.

Drought conditions currently plaguing the southeastern U.S. wiill improve, the weather prognosticators say, but drought will most likely persist in western Texas, eastern New Mexico, western Kansas and Nebraska and possibly the western Dakotas. Above normal flooding is possible in much of the Mississippi River basin, the Ohio River basin, the lower Missouri River basin, New England and portions of the West that had a lot of snow, including Colorado and Idaho. Warmer-than-normal weather will persist through June in Nevada, Utah and Colorado, moving south into Texas and stretching east toward the Carolinas, Georgia and Florida.

That all said, the best farmers know better than to feast on every word of the weather report and just throw up their hands. Weather forecasting is among the least precise of activities, and just the opposite is just as likely to happen. This winter has been much wetter than forecast, and much colder. It may get dry, but most areas of the west are heading into spring with excellent moisture conditions. Just a little rain, and the weather forecast is shot full of holes yet again.

Really, it's anybody's guess what the weather will actually do.